INDEPENDENT
Newsletter of the IEEE Los Angeles
April-May 2002
Editorial, by Robert Poltz
I’ve been asked previously to
discuss PATCA as a model for the IEEE CNs in
Here is a description of PATCA, the Professional And Technical Consultants Association.
PATCA has been around for quite few years and is located in the Bay Area of California, formed in 1975, with a current membership of over 250 members. Some of the benefits offered are:
- Directory of Consultants, cross-indexed by name/business, and consulting skills
- Internet Website with searchable Consultants Directory
- Referral Service with email notification
- Quarterly News Journal
- Monthly Meeting with speakers on subjects important to Consultants of all disciplines
- Insurance discounts
- Educational seminars and workshops
- Kick-start program for new and existing consultants
- Government Affairs Lobbying
PATCA is organized as a non-profit and can be found on the web at www.patca.org
What distinguishes PATCA from
IEEE CNs is the depth and breadth of activities
presented to its member base on a regular monthly basis. Because it is staffed
full-time by a management company that services the membership and clients,
primarily in
It’s
membership spans outside the Bay Area, too. I am a full-member Consultant of
PATCA, although I reside in
From my perspective, the Directory listing and web presence, plus the email referral notification are major assets to a serious Consultant, desiring success. It’s all well and good for those IEEE CN Consultants who are well-established, but what of the new consultant desiring to learn the business. The IEEE CNs do not have a mentoring program for new consultants or even established consultants desiring to learn more about conducting business.
PATCA provides a diverse membership not constrained to only one discipline or specialty, whereas IEEE CNs are, by design, made up of Electrical and Electronic Engineers, as the name states, making for interesting meetings. PATCA members are more entrepreneurial by and large, since they are all small businesses, as well as consultants.
So what is the downside of PATCA membership or constructing the CNs to be like PATCA?
First, and foremost, it costs more to belong. Full membership now costs $395.00 a year.
Next, it is regionally centric to
the Bay Area, but membership is enjoyed across the continental
PATCA Consultants provide services, primarily to smaller businesses, although some work with large corporations like Motorola and Cisco.
Lastly, PATCA is expanding and revising its web pages for member services, and reaches a broader base of clientele than does IEEE CNs, largely because of its years in service and marketing effectiveness.
Below is a sample of the “Friday Update” sent via email to all its members.
Now here’s my challenge to the
readers and members of any IEEE CN in
Would regular email referrals help your practice? How about the early morning Kickstart Club, where experienced consultants mentor other interested consultants and “wanna-be’s.” This is my short list of benefits, whether deciding to join PATCA or just emulate the structure and benefits. The IEEE CNs, in my opinion, do not service the consultant population adequately for anyone wanting to begin, maintain or expand their business horizons. The IEEE CNs are still thinking and behaving like a technical society, and not that of a professional services organization. But then, why would it? It is, afterall, an IEEE sponsored group, and the IEEE is a technical society. I think we, as consultants and IEEE CN members, deserve more, if we are to succeed as consultants.
Okay, I’ll climb off of my soapbox and turn the microphone over to you, the readers and members of IEEE CNs, for comments and opinion. You can write me, at rpoltz@ieee.org or any one of the IEEE CN officers in your area.
Example-
“Professional and Technical Consultants Association
Friday Update
1)
1) Independent Consultants’
Clinic on the Rebounding Economy – Monthly dinner meeting April 11th
2)
2) Get What You Paid For – Referral Access Policy a must
3)
3) The Hope of the Future – PATCA rewards engineering talent
4)
4) Looking to Get Noticed - Send us your ideas for getting
PATCA in the public eye
5) Nurturing Genius – Former Napster CEO shares
insights
6) Look Ahead – Upcoming Events
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Details below
1)– Independent Consultants’ Clinic on the Rebounding Economy - Monthly dinner meeting April 11th
What are
the signs that the economy is rebounding?
What are the consulting issues during this recovery period? A panel of Senior
consultants (Carl Angotti, Brian Berg, Thomas Iddings) will be joined by Senior
Technical Recruiter, Troy Rhynes when they take on the topic: Independent
Consultants’ Clinic on the Rebounding Economy.
Each panelist will focus on a business issue they have faced in
recession/recovery climates, such as holding the line when others are
low-balling rates. Each panelist will share what evidence they see of a
turn-around. See more about the program
on the PATCA website at https://www.patca.org/committees/programs.htm. A reservation form is included at the end
of this e-mail. RSVP
before April 9th.
2) Get What You Paid For – Referral Access Policy a must
According to policy formulated by the PATCA
membership, only members who have signed and returned the Referral Access
Policy statement are eligible to receive incoming referrals. The statement is included with renewal notices,
but members who call in credit card numbers to pay for their PATCA membership
are especially susceptible to overlooking this required aspect of sharing PATCA
referrals. April 15th is the
cutoff date for members to return their signed statements.
3) The Hope of the Future – PATCA rewards engineering talent
The Second
PATCA “Excellence in Engineering Award” went to Emily Stover, a 6th
grade student at West Lake Elementary.
Emily was recognized at an awards dinner for participants in this year’s
Santa Cruz County Science Fair last Tuesday night. She impressed the judges with her design and
documentation of a centrifuge to expel anthrax from letters in a mailbox. Honorable mention went to John Hiesey, an 8th
grader at
4) Looking to Get Noticed - Send us your ideas for getting
PATCA in the public eye
Low cost, high visibility ideas for getting PATCA
noticed are being sought by PATCA’s Marketing Committee. Forward your ideas about events that need
engineers or other technical experts as judges; or opportunities to showcase
PATCA as a team, such as events at the
5) Nurturing Genius – Former Napster CEO, Eileen
Richardson, shares insights at the AeA breakfast on April 10, on the topic of :
"Napster and Beyond: Finding and Nurturing Tech Genius". Breakfast & Networking 7:15-8 a.m;
Speaker:
company with more than 20 million
users. Today Eileen is CEO of Infravio, a hot Web services startup whose
product sprang from the groundbreaking research of a
investments in Exodus and
CommerceOne.
6) Look Ahead – PATCA meetings for the upcoming
months
** PATCA’s
Board of Directors meet at the Mt. View Chamber of
Commerce on the first Tuesday of each month to conduct the Association’s
business. April’s meeting is an
exception. It is Monday, April 1st
(no fooling).
** Dinner
Meetings take place on the second Thursday of each month. The dinner meetings occur at the Embassy
Suites,
** The
Kickstart Club is a monthly meeting for members who want to sharpen their
consulting skills by sharing problems and solutions in an informal
atmosphere. President Charlie Gray hosts
the meetings at The Country Gourmet (
SPECIAL INTEREST ANNOUNCEMENT from Mike
Morehouse
Here is an announcement of general interest from Lockheed-Martin Aerospace to its vendors attending the recent Small Business Conference. For more information, contact Ron Oglevie, ronoglevie@aol.com or Mike Morehouse, QCTEK@aol.com .
Mike Morehouse gave a Marketing Presentation at IEEE CN
meeting. Many
questions were left unanswered, in Mike’s opinion, regarding how
to find the applicable Purchasing Agent that handles your "commodity"
(Hardware/Software).
He asked a Purchasing Agent with Lockheed Martin-Aeronautics how to become a
Supplier to Lockheed Martin-Aeronautics? This is what he was told:
1) Complete Form "L" from the SBA. (See Attachment (SBA.DOC)
2) During the completion process,
you'll be requested to refer to:
a) New NAICS
Code database at (https://www.naics.com/).
b) Determine
if your business is located in HUBZONE.
Refer to (https://www.sbaonline.sba.gov/hubzone/).
3) Sign and Date form; Enter your
title; And enter your Phone & Fax numbers.
4) Certifications are Faxed or emailed (For Lockheed Martin,
to Emma
Stevens at 817-762-9520 or (emma.j.stevens@lmco.com).
5) With this document, you should FAX or
E-Mail a Letter to the applicable individual on your "Letter Head"
describing your company and its products and/or Services.
6) The following documents may be required:
A) Business
Plan.
B) Quality
Assurance Manual (Either MIL-I-45208A or ISO-9000
based).
C) Quality
Assurance Procedures.
D) For
Software, a full set of procedures detailing how you
Design, Develop, and
"Manufacture" Software.
Then, the SBA Business Rep. will prepare a document package on the
Supplier's Database; and each LMC's division will have access to your
data.
TO: All Active LM Aero Suppliers
SUBJECT: SBA Publishes New Rule Replacing SIC Codes
with NAICS Codes
Source: Federal Register [65
FR 30836] Issued:
Dear Lockheed Martin
Aeronautics Company Supplier:
All
Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company suppliers must complete the attached form
to recertify under the new North American Industry Classification System
(NAICS) codes. Please complete and return this form by January 31, 2001. You
may not receive contracts from Lockheed Martin if you do not complete this
certification or if it is not returned complete.
The
Small Business Administration (SBA) published a final rule (effective
This
rule will have a significant affect on subcontracting. Since the SIC system is currently used to
determine subcontractor eligibility for classification as a small business,
subcontractors must recertify under the applicable NAICS codes to ensure
compliance.
In accordance with
Government regulations and prime contract requirements, we must verify certain
information about our suppliers. To help you complete the profile and to
convert SIC codes to the NAICS codes, refer to website at https://www.naics.com/. To help you
determine if you are in a HUBZone, refer to the website at https://www.sbaonline.sba.gov/hubzone/.
Notice: Under 15 U.S.C. 645 (d), any person who misrepresents a firm’s status
as a small business concern in order to obtain a contract to be awarded under
the preference programs established pursuant to sections 8(a), 8(d), 9, or 15
of the Small Business Act or any other provision of Federal law that
specifically references section 8(d) for a definition of program eligibility,
shall (1) be punished by imposition of a fine, imprisonment, or both; (2) be
subject to administrative remedies, including suspension and debarment;
and (3) be ineligible for participation
in programs conducted under the authority of the Act.
Please fax or email the
forms to Emma Stevens at 817 762-9520 or emma.j.stevens@lmco.com,
or direct questions to Jim Randle, Small Business Programs Manager at 817
762-1603 or jim.w.randle@lmco.com.
CERTIFICATION – NORTH
AMERICAN INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM
LM Aeronautics Supplier Numbers (F/M/P):
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1. Business Organization |
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Business Name: _____________________________________________________________________ Address: _________________________________________________________________________________________________ E-Mail Address: ________________________________ Web site: _______________________________________ List Present SIC code(s): _______________________ List New NAICS code(s) (refer to https://www.naics.com/ ): _______________________________________________________ Company operates as: A corporation incorporated under the laws of what state: ______________________ |
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Non-profit: |
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2. Foreign
Ownership If supplier or a parent company (if any) is foreign owned, please complete the following: |
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Is supplier owned by a foreign Government? |
Yes |
No |
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If No, is supplier an agent or instrumentality of a foreign Government? |
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If Yes as to either of the foregoing questions, what Government? |
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What percentage of ownership is held by the Government |
All |
% |
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Is supplier owned by a foreign corporation? |
Yes |
No |
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If Yes, what country? |
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3. Acquisition From the Blind and other Severely Handicapped (Javitts-Wagner-O’Day Act) |
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The supplier represents that the supplier is: |
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4. Socioeconomic Information Indicate your company size by the definitions section: |
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Required Data – check applicable Block |
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Is
your company Woman-owned? Is
your company located in a HUBZone? https://www.sbaonline.sba.gov/hubzone/ If yes, is your company certified by the Small Business Administration? |
Yes Yes Yes |
No No No |
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Is your company a small disadvantaged business? |
Yes See Below |
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Hispanic American |
Black American |
Native American |
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Subcontinent Asian American |
Asian-Pacific American |
Other
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5. Other Socioeconomic |
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Is
the supplier a Historically Black College or University (HBCU), Minority
Institution (MI) or |
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6. Veteran Business Concern |
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Veteran Yes No Disabled Veteran? Yes No |
The following terms used in
this supplier profile have the definitions indicated in the provision of the
Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) or department of Defense FAR supplement
(DFARS), Asian Pacific American. (See FAR 19.001), Black American (See FAR
19.001), Hispanic American ( See FAR 19.001),
Historically
The supplier certifies all the foregoing
representations and certifications are correct.
The supplier agrees to notify Lockheed Martin of any changes to this
certification.
Authorized Signature _________________________________________
Title____________________________ Date_____________
Phone _______________________ Fax _______________________
Certifications may be faxed or e-mailed to Emma Stevens at 817 762-9520 or emma.j.stevens@lmco.com Phone 817 762-1812
Fault
Tree Analysis
by Robert
Poltz , Reliability Consultant mailto:getreliability@designanalytx.com
Fault
tree analysis was created and developed in the 1960s, and was adopted by the
nuclear power industry to analyze the safety of their electric power systems.
Fault tree analysis is a probabilistic deductive systems analysis tool that
provides a pictorial system representation using Boolean logic gates in a
vertically oriented tree formation.
Starting
at a top-level event, fault tree analysis depicts the system operation graphically.
Then, flowing backward through the system, it uses logic gates to depict events
that must occur for proper system operation. It is typical during an analysis
to create a function tree first that displays the proper operation of the
system.
The
analyst then takes each positive event and reverses the outcome, making it a
fault or failure, and redraws the subordinate events that contribute to the
upper-level event failure, until a Basic Events block is reached. At that
point, the analysis for that leg is concluded.
There
will be many legs to be analyzed, spreading from the top-level event,
resembling a triangle or a "tree"—hence the name fault
"tree" analysis.
These
logic gates are used in fault tree analysis.
·
AND gates—output
event occurs if all input events occur.
- OR gates—Output event
occurs if any one of the input events occurs.
- Majority-Vote
OR gate—output event occurs if a majority of the input events occur.
- Exclusive OR
gate—output event occurs if one but not both input events occur.
"Either or, never both," is the rule.
- Priority AND
gate—output event occurs if all input events occur in sequential order
from left to right.
- NOT gate—output event
occurs if the input event does not occur.
- Description
Box—describes system or component.
- BASIC circle—used to
describe a basic event at the root of the tree where failure and repair
data are available for the basic event.
- Diamond-shaped
block—undeveloped, represents a system event that is yet to be
developed.
- Conditional
(elliptical shape)—similar to basic event, but represents a
conditional probability connected to an inhibit gate, terminates a branch.
- Diamond
inside a diamond—similar to a basic event, but indicates that
the event represents a dormant failure.
- Equilateral
Triangle—indicates that this part of the fault tree is developed in a
different part of the diagram or on a different page of the analysis.
Construction Guidelines
1. Define the bounds of the system to
be analyzed and the level of complexity to which failures will be resolved.
- Identify the
TOP-level event of the system to be analyzed. The TOP-level events of the
system represent those events for which reliability and availability
predictions are required.
- Using a
top-down deductive-reasoning approach, identify all the immediate causes
of the TOP-level events.
- Now define
the immediate causes of the new system events. It is important that
intermediate system events are not missed out when defining the immediate
causes. In this way, the levels of the fault tree progress systematically
from major system events, through intermediate levels of complexity, to
the basic events representing component failures at the roots of the fault
tree.
- Continue this
process of defining the immediate causes of system events until all the
roots of the fault tree are terminated by Basic, Conditional, Undeveloped,
Dormant, and Transfer events.
- Avoid
abstract events.
- Identify all
distinct causes for an event.
- Resolve an
event into more elementary events.
- Always
provide a complete description of the system or component event in the
rectangular description block above each fault tree symbol.
Minimal Cut Sets
The first step of the fault tree
analysis process is to produce the minimal cut sets for each system TOP-level
event. The minimal cut set is the minimum combination of failures that cause
the TOP-level event to occur.
Component failure and repair data
are not required when evaluating the minimal cut sets of the system unless a
probabilistic cut-off is being applied to eliminate highly improbable failure
combinations. Cut-offs are applied to reduce the
number of minimal cut sets to a manageable size when evaluating large trees.
Minimal cut sets for fault tree
analysis may be obtained using Boolean algebra techniques. These techniques
involve representing the gates in a fault tree with equivalent Boolean
expressions. The Boolean variables in an expression will represent the gates
and basic events in a fault tree.
Each gate and basic event in the
fault tree should be given a unique name.
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An AND gate G output of X and Y inputs |
G = X · Y |
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An OR gate G output of X or Y inputs |
G = X + Y |
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A majority-vote OR gate G |
G = X · Y + X · Z + Y · Z |
Basic
Probability Theory
Independent Events
Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one event does not
affect the occurrence of the other. In fault trees, events are assumed to be
independent, which simplifies the probability calculations. In reality, many
dependencies exist between events.
Exclusivity
Mutually exclusive events are events that cannot occur together, for example, a
failure state and a working state of the same component. However, an example of
mutually nonexclusive events would be the simultaneous failure of two different
independent components existing in binary mutually exclusive states, i.e.,
working and failed. The failures of different components are generally
considered to be nonexclusive.
Addition Law
If three events, A and B and C, are nonexclusive, and
the failures of the three are independent, then the following addition law
applies.
P(A + B + C) =
P(A) + P(B) +P(C) - P(A) · P(B) · P(C) - P(A) · P(B) - P(A) · P(C) - P(B) ·
P(C) + P(A) · P(B) · P(C)
In general, the following expression
applies for n independent nonexclusive events.
Multiplication Law
The probability of two independent nonexclusive events A and B occurring
together is given by
P(A · B) = P(A) ·
P(B) ,
where
P(A · B) = probability
of A and B occurring together
P(A) = probability of A occurring
P(B) = probability of B occurring.
The general case is
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. |
Conclusion
Fault tree analysis is a complex
deductive-reasoning, tops-down, analysis technique used to analyze complex
systems and events for systems safety. It is better handled with the aid of a
computer program specifically designed to handle multiple trees and the resulting
probabilistic calculations, and provides a graphical representation of the
logic gates used in the analysis. One then adheres to the laws of probability
in calculating Minimal Cut Sets, and quantifies the probability of occurrence
for each TOP-level event. The program must be capable of handling reliability
input data and translating outputs to reliability statistics and equations.
IEEE LAA/OC CN ExComm 2002
Ralph Hileman, Chairman r.Hileman@ieee.org
Robert Poltz, Vice Chairman rpoltz@ieee.org
Pete Schultz, Secretary p.r.Schultz@ieee.org
Barry Todd, Treasurer b.todd@ieee.org
Orange County
Pete Schultz, Chairman p.r.Schultz@ieee.org
Ralph Hileman, Vice Chairman r.Hileman@ieee.org
Ron Taggart, Secretary/Treasurer a.r.taggart@ieee.org