Electro-technology in Asia Pacific Towards 2000

Dr. Paul Y.S. Cheung
Director
IEEE Asia Pacific Region

In five years we shall move from the 20th century to the 21st century, and no other technology has changed our lives so much as electro-technology, which engulfs the broad areas of microelectronics, computers, telecommunications and electric energy systems, and on which modern society is built. In this short article I would like to share with you my vision for electro-technology in the Year 2000 and beyond from the perspective of the Asia Pacific region. Let us first look at some numbers.

In a meeting I attended earlier this year I heard Mr. K.H. Tung, a prominent industrialist in Hong Kong, quoted some statistics which I would like to share with you. In a decade the Asia Pacific Region (including China, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, India, the Asean Countries, Australia and New Zealand) could have an economy larger than that of the EEC and NAFTA. In addition this Region is well known for its high fiscal reserves and savings rate and could double its current US$1.2 trillion annual savings to US$2.4 trillion over the same period. This means that the region will become one of the largest sources of capital in the world. Over the same period the Asia Development Bank has estimated that the Asia Pacific region will need about US$1 trillion in investment in the next 5 years for infrastructure projects alone.

This means that the Asia Pacific region is likely to become the world's largest producer and also consumer, plus interestingly its own largest lender and borrower. Its economic, technological and political influence on the world in the next decade is going to be very significant.

Now let us turn to electro-technology. While the electric power generation capacity per capita or the number of telephones per household in developed countries like the US can be considered as bountiful (or even excessive), it is by contrast rather inadequate in many parts of the Asia Pacific. This translates into enormous opportunities for development and new markets. It is estimated, for example, that over 50% of electric energy systems developed in the next 10 years will be in Region 10.

How would these developments be financed? From industry of course - manufacturing, hardware, software and service industries - and once again electro-technology plays a paramount role. Let us look at the electronics industry as an example. From a recent study by Dataquest (Report on Techno-Economic & Market Research Study on Hong Kong Electronics Industry 1993-94) the electronic industries are estimated to be some US$240 billion in Japan, US$33bn in South Korea, and over US$12bn in Malaysia and Thailand combined. The compound annual growth rates in the region range from as high as 38% in Thailand to a few percent in Hong Kong and Taiwan. As countries like China, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, India and soon Vietnam quickly move into the industrial scene and become new players in the world of manufacturing, the "Four Dragons", namely Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan (note in alphabetical order only) will have to move into more value-added products and services.

This is where the IEEE and electro-technology come in. As the global and premier learned Institute in electro-technology, the IEEE has the mandate to promote, enhance and further the development of electro-technology for the benefit of humankind. IEEE provides the channel, the forum, the media and the structure for its 320,000 members plus many more non-members world-wide to share, to communicate and to learn from each other, so that our knowledge and know-how can be further developed. This is precisely why we participate in IEEE activities, Sections, Chapters, conferences, short-courses, technical meetings, and also in social events where we can share with each other.

Let me end by quoting a US lawyer at the turn of this century. He said, "The Mediterranean was the Ocean of the past, the Atlantic is the Ocean of the present, and the Pacific will be the Ocean of the future."

To meet the challenges in the 21st century, we need to work together, to collaborate, to share and to participate. With your effort in promoting and furthering electro-technology, and your support for the IEEE in its cause, perhaps making the 21st century the "Asia Pacific Century" is not a dream but a fast approaching reality.

Short Biography of Dr. Paul Y.S. Cheung

Dr. Cheung received his BSc(Eng) and PhD degrees from Imperial College of Science and Technology. He has worked with the Queen's University of Belfast and the Hong Kong Polytechnic before joining the University of Hong Kong in 1980, where he is currently the Dean of Engineering. His research interest includes computer architecture, VLSI design and signal processing. He has served IEEE in the Section, Region and Board level including the Chairman of the RAB/TAB Transnational Committee. He is currently the Director of IEEE Asia Pacific Region and member of the IEEE Board of Directors.