ECTC Panel Discussion
Wireless Technology: Is It a Disruptive One?

Ephraim Suhir chaired a thought provoking session late Tuesday night (May 29th) as part of the ECTC experience. He set the tone for the discussion by pointing out the by "disruptive" he means the it is something that will change how you think about the markets you serve. Because of this perspective it is often the Marketing groups of companies that force a technology to be disruptive rather than the clever technologists.
As engineers, we often guess wrong as to which technology becomes disruptive. We like to believe that it is our genius to transcend the small incremental steps and go for the big leap forward that insures the disruption of the marketplace. With this view, we find that the growing wireless presence (400 million hand held wireless units sold over the last year) is beginning to intimidate many establish ways of communication. If the customer find or by marketing blitz believe they find that wireless provides cheaper, simpler, smaller, and more convient to use. Ephraim Suhir pointed out that many technologies that eventually replace established technologies started out underperforming in some ways but seeming better in some aspects to the users. For example the first small transistor radios were technically as good as tube receivers but they were small and did not need to be plugged in. In analogy, many people are dropping their twisted wire phone service at home and using cell phones for all their communication.
Despite defining the terms very well, Dr. Suhir never answered the question as to whether the Wireless Technology was on a disruptive path.

The first presenter was Lou Manzione from Bell Laboratories. He reinforced Suhir's statements agreeing that the disruption is often market driven not technological. He pointed to the fast rate of movement in wireless application developments that could put the marketplace on the verge of major changes. the number of data and voice wireless subscribers is growing rapidly.
He sees this trend only increasing as the handsets get smaller, go digital, add many digital browsing (see Japan), and unified messaging. Another example is the recent explosive growth of wireless LANs. The one advantage of low cost of quick installation has disrupted the market for small offices, schools, retail (Starbucks), and corporate offices. The $100 per connection ($60 PC card + $30 for server). This can be used for Tags on retail items and for Wide area Network (WAN) over 5 miles.
He reviewed the routes of growth:
1. 802.11 at 5.6 and 2.4 GHz bands has been used at 11 Mb/s in the 50 - 500 meter range. The security issues have been addressed with 64 and 128 bit keys using RC4 encryption. This technology is used mostly for data.
2. Bluetooth can include voice is at 2.45GHz with 10 meter range. Could define a path of lap top to cell phone to LAN. Bluetooth should be less than $10 unit but built on sophisticated LTCC.
So LANs will start having a big impact. Third generation will be at 2 Mbps and fourth at 100 Mbps. The wireless cells will probably shrink from Macro ( 5 - 30 km) to Micro (1 - 5 km) to Pico (0.2 - 2 km). With Pico cells there would be no acquisition costs for repeater sites since they will be so small. However will need high efficiency power amps, thermal management, smart integrated antennas. Need high reliability at low cost (even in lightning storms), advanced packaging with light weight. If the beam could be steered with a smart antenna system then frequencies could be reused even with cell.
The radio on a chip will allow perhaps 4 different frequencies to used by each wireless unit to increase reliability of service.
Lou Manzione sees the lap top + palm + cell phone = new terminal that could be sold at a higher price point because it has more functions. On the component level he mentioned inductors with MEMs and proliferation of SAWs and embedded passives in the design.

The next presenter was Dr. Seppo Pienimaa of Nokia. He interprets wireless as a more natural approach. that virtual presence is more natural than standing at the end of twisted wire pairs. He pointed out that only 20% of the people in the world have wired phones.
He pointed out that current terminals are 80 cc broken down as: 60% mechanics and interface, 25% batteries, and 15% electronics. However the trend is to go to color which will mean a larger display which will demand the rest of unit must be made thinner. Miniaturization is the enabler. The trends are to extend the options, enhance security, and enhance efficiency. Wireless is replacing fixed wire as well as expanding service to those that don't have wired service. Encryption implementation will be easier to add onto wireless than to existing hard wired LANs.

The stock prices of companies depending on wired phone and LAN communication at least momentarily indicate the disruption caused by wireless has begun. However, the lack of profits for the wireless companies may make it a hollow victory for disruption.