Compared to the good old days Bill's predictions were unexcitingly flat, but compared to last year, things are looking up, maybe even beginning to take off.

He did mention that there is deflation taking place in wafer and system prices due to China coming on strong in those areas.
History. In 2001 the Gross Electronic Product was greater than $800 B. In 2002 it dropped to about $750B but we expect a 5% increase in 2003 to about $790B. The semiconductor production (IC count) actually never went down. It increased 1 % last year and is looking like 15% this year ($162B) and a prediciton of 25% in 2004. This is big unit growth which some day will lead to a healthly growth in margin (and investment in manufacturing). Equipment represents about $25B with materials having grown slightly bigger than this.
Perspective: Just in case the audience was getting a little too happy, he mentioned that Walmart sales were bigger than all semiconductor markets added together. He mentioned that the new U.S. tax program that gives $100K write-offs for small companies will have an immediate effect on our business, because everyone will want to upgrade their PCs -- still a driver for the IC business. It will take a partial recovery in both computers and communication. Over time the IC content of electronics system has grown to 20% of the value. It will probably not grow much more now so the economy must pick up as a whole for the IC business to recover.
Cycles. Bill showed that there is a long history of highs and lows in our business. The lows tykpically come in lengths 2-4 years. We are in a world wide slowdown for 3 years now so the end is probably near. We must wait for the world economy to recover a bit more before we can start negotiating around for a better salary. Years 2001 and 2002 saw the shrinkage in electronics system sales the first time in history.
Prediction: Many companies are back to the revenue of 5 years ago. We can expect an average growth of 8% in the future. Already the IC demand is growing with higher unit sales, but the average selling price is down to levels of 10 years ago despite the vastly increase functionality.
Everyone at the luncheon were smiling, so there must have been some truth in his presentation.