CANDE Predictions for the Early 90s

(Predicted in April 1986 Meeting)

Commentary (1996):

These Top Ten predictions were made in 1986 for the early 1990's. In light of the second prediction, it should be noted that CAD for parallel computers and parallel hardware accellerators was one of the session topics that year! But certainly Prediction (1) was true (not at all obvious in '86!) and Prediction (3) has been a central emphasis now for a number of years (especially post Pentium!). Prediction (4) pre-dates, the widespread use of the term "framework" and the "design solution" marketing pitches of the late 1980s and early 1990s. Prediction (6) was certainly true by then, and one might argue that Prediction (7) is true today (Ed: late 90's when this commentary was written) and that "DSP" was the correct emphasis, although it is perhaps not yet clear what the "other" application areas are (embedded control? multimedia?). Prediction (9) might have been a few years too early but is certainly a central theme of the deep-submicron era, and Prediction (10) remains unchallenged -- or does it? (Ed: yes, it remains unchallenged in 2001).

Predictions:

1. UNIX will be the dominant operating system.

2. General Purpose Parallel machines will replace todays computers; they will be designed for high performance on major CAD algorithms (e.g., SPICE, Logic Synthesis, Fault Simulation, Simluated Annealing, Device Simulation).

3. The big problem for CAD will become the validation of specifications.

4. The major developments in CAE/CAD will be in the environments for users.

5. The test problem will still be considered NP-hard, boring and unsolved.

6. Many CAD tools will finally use hierarchy effectively.

7. General silicon compiler not developed yet but targeted silicon compiler for DSP and other specific applications will be in general use.

8. SPICE will still be the standard circuit simulator.

9. CAD tools will increasingly take into account statistical fluctuations in the manufacturing process.

10. Full hand-crafted custom will still be an important part of design.

Commentary: (9/2001)

At this point of time, it would appear that majority of the predictions actually did come through except (2), (4), (7) and partially (3). Parallel machines haven't panned out as hoped, clustered machines appear to be gaining momentum (perhaps driven largely cost and OS (NT) considerations). Environments for some reasons haven't been hot with the engineering nerds. Silicon compiler did not come though as imagined though high-level synthesis is steadily making inroads into practical use. However, the complexity of silicon (size, density) is outstripping the capacity of such tools and most designers are looking for ways to improve design productivity through increased design reuse (the jury is still out on it).