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The Southern Jersey Professional Societies
American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA)
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE),
International Council of Systems Engineers (INCOSE),
International Test and Evaluation Association (ITEA), National Society of Black Engineers (NSBE), and the Human Factors Ergonomics Society (HFES)

Wednesday Sept 19, 2018


Analyzing Pilot Decision-Making Using Predictive Modeling


Speaker:  Somil Shah, FAA, ANG-E272

Due to the increased availability of computational power and large amounts of data, predictive modeling and analytics are becoming increasingly popular in a wide variety of fields. Some predictive modeling techniques are fairly simple, such as linear and logistic regressions, whereas others are fairly complex, such as artificial neural networks. Popular applications of predictive modeling include detecting fraud, diagnosing patients for certain diseases, and predicting traffic and travel times. This presentation discusses one novel application of predictive modeling in the field of commercial aviation safety research. First, two different predictive modeling techniques are presented: artificial neural networks (ANNs) and partition models. The application of the techniques is then demonstrated through a case study related to the determination of stable approach/go-around criteria for transport category aircraft. Predictive modeling is used to analyze human-in-the-loop flight simulator data and questionnaire responses by a number of commercial pilots in order to predict their go- around decisions based on a set of given initial conditions. Through these analyses, it was found that individual pilot personalities significantly affect go-around decision-making. In addition, comparisons are made between modeling methods, and the benefits of using such techniques in modeling human behavior to improve aviation safety is demonstrated.


    Location: Blue Heron Pines Golf Club
    550 Country Club Dr, Egg Harbor City, NJ 08215

    (609) 965-1800



    Social Time: 6:00 PM   
    Dinner: 6:30 PM   
    Speaker Approx: 7:45 PM

    MENU: Buffet dinner


    $19 AIAA/IEEE/INCOSE Members
    $23 ITEA/NSBE/HFES/Guests
    $15 Students

    Reservations due by noon Tuesday, May 15

    Joseph Burns 609-338-8789  (C)
    Mike Konyak 609-280-8179 (C)

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(Modified: 13-Sep-2018)